Can an ETF go to zero?
For most standard, unleveraged ETFs that track an index, the maximum you can theoretically lose is the amount you invested, driving your investment value to zero. However, it's rare for broad-market ETFs to go to zero unless the entire market or sector it tracks collapses entirely.
Over even longer time horizons, every percentile (except the 100th) of the ETF's value will eventually converge to zero. This is not to say that rebalancing is always bad. Rebalancing a portfolio with positive expected growth will enhance median returns over time.
ETFs may close due to lack of investor interest or poor returns. For investors, the easiest way to exit an ETF investment is to sell it on the open market. Liquidation of ETFs is strictly regulated; when an ETF closes, any remaining shareholders will receive a payout based on what they had invested in the ETF.
"Leveraged and inverse funds generally aren't meant to be held for longer than a day, and some types of leveraged and inverse ETFs tend to lose the majority of their value over time," Emily says.
A leveraged ETF's price can theoretically go negative, but it's extremely rare and usually only happens in extreme market conditions. Leveraged ETFs use financial leverage to amplify the returns of an underlying asset, such as the S&P 500 Index.
ETFs can be safe investments if used correctly, offering diversification and flexibility. Indexed ETFs, tracking specific indexes like the S&P 500, are generally safe and tend to gain value over time. Leveraged ETFs can be used to amplify returns, but they can be riskier due to increased volatility.
A leveraged ETF is a fund that uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the returns of an underlying index. Certain double or triple-leveraged ETFs can lose more than double or triple the value change of the tracked index. Therefore, these types of speculative investments need to be carefully evaluated.
What's worse, an ETF's liquidity can be superficial: The ETF may trade one penny wide for the first 100 shares, but to sell 10,000 shares quickly, you might have to pay a quarter spread. Trading costs can quickly eat into your returns.
ETFs are most often linked to a benchmarking index, meaning that they are often not designed to outperform that index. Investors looking for this type of outperformance (which also, of course, carries added risks) should perhaps look to other opportunities.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
What happens if an ETF goes bust?
The biggest hassle of an ETF closure is it upends your investment timeline, and there's nothing you can do about it. You're forced to sell or take liquidation proceeds, which can create a tax burden or lock in investment losses.
And while theoretically possible, the entire US stock market going to zero would be incredibly unlikely. It would, in fact, take a catastrophic event involving the total dissolution of the US government and economic system for this to occur.
Q: How does the wash sale rule work? If you sell a security at a loss and buy the same or a substantially identical security within 30 calendar days before or after the sale, you won't be able to take a loss for that security on your current-year tax return.
Nearly all leveraged ETFs come with a prominent warning in their prospectus: they are not designed for long-term holding. The combination of leverage, market volatility, and an unfavorable sequence of returns can lead to disastrous outcomes.
Because of their wide array of holdings, ETFs provide the benefits of diversification, including lower risk and less volatility, which often makes a fund safer to own than an individual stock. An ETF's return depends on what it's invested in. An ETF's return is the weighted average of all its holdings.
In terms of safety, neither the mutual fund nor the ETF is safer than the other due to its structure. Safety is determined by what the fund itself owns. Stocks are usually riskier than bonds, and corporate bonds come with somewhat more risk than U.S. government bonds.
The single biggest risk in ETFs is market risk.
Bottom Line on ETFs for Retirement
ETF benefits, including simplicity, low expenses and tax efficiency, make exchange-traded funds a worthwhile investment for retirement. Popular types of ETFs for retirement include dividend ETFs, fixed-income ETFs and real estate ETFs.
Hold ETFs throughout your working life. Hold ETFs as long as you can, give compound interest time to work for you. Sell ETFs to fund your retirement. Don't sell ETFs during a market crash.
In theory, if Vanguard went bankrupt, your assets within the ETF should be safe, as they're technically yours held in trust by Vanguard. So if Vanguard collapsed, then what would likely happen would be that another manager would take over the ETF, or the assets would be sold off and you'd be paid out.
Should you sell ETF at a loss?
If an ETF purchase is underwater when you approach the one-year mark, you may consider selling it as a short-term capital loss. High earners are also subject to the 3.8% Net Investment Income Tax on ETF sales.
Some experts recommend at least 15% of your income. Setting clear investment goals can help you determine if you're investing the right amount.
The low investment threshold for most ETFs makes it easy for a beginner to implement a basic asset allocation strategy that matches their investment time horizon and risk tolerance. For example, young investors might be 100% invested in equity ETFs when they are in their 20s.
The majority of individual investors should, however, seek to hold 5 to 10 ETFs that are diverse in terms of asset classes, regions, and other factors. Investors can diversify their investment portfolio across several industries and asset classes while maintaining simplicity by buying 5 to 10 ETFs.
You expose your portfolio to much higher risk with sector ETFs, so you should use them sparingly, but investing 5% to 10% of your total portfolio assets may be appropriate. If you want to be highly conservative, don't use these at all.
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